Australia's future energy clarity

Over the past month or so, the question of how Australia will power its industrial engines, manufacturing, and even civic base has been challenged like never before.

Conjecture about where industry-scale energy will come from has yet to help the national energy debate. Australia needs renewables and only needs nuclear if it’s worth it in the long run. Australia needs facts.

The Smart Energy Council has released an analysis that puts the cost of the LNP energy plan between $118bn and $600bn, using an average sample of large-scale nuclear power stations constructed in developed Western economies over the past 30 years. Australia has no nuclear industry capability right now, and while renewable power still has yet to attain the majority power base, it is still in the early days.

The hastily gathered nuclear plan hasn’t clarified that it will account for less than 4% of Australia’s electricity requirements by 2045. That’s expensive power.

New research from NAB and Deloitte Access Economics has revealed what Australia could reap as the world moves toward decarbonisation and lower emissions. According to Deloitte, Australia can reap a $435bn economic boost by 2050 if it capitalises on the global race for net-zero emissions.

The report concludes that Australia could take advantage of the transformation and surging global demand created by the need to replace emissions-intensive assets. Green industrial exports drive a net increase in Australia’s total exports—they not only replace lost economic output from emissions-intensive activity but also create new growth.

But NAB Chair Philip Chronican strongly suggests Australia needs to make the most of its natural endowments as we make the energy switch. “Australia has two challenges: getting to net zero and replacing our existing export industries as global demand falls away,” he said.

“This expanded economic capacity in green industries supports an increase to Australia’s exports of about $420bn by 2050,” the report says.

“The harsh reality is that if we only hit our targets without replacing the exports, we will become a materially poorer nation.”

According to NAB Group CEO Ross McEwan, despite the high cost, Australia needs to “build, build, build” to secure the economic benefits of the clean energy boom.

“To do this, we need investment and labour to drive the projects, shorter lead times, improved consultation and a consistent national framework that delivers major green infrastructure projects with widespread community support,” McEwan said. Geoff Crittenden (CEO of Weld Australia) states, “Of the 67,000 welders identified in the last census, fewer than 5,000 possess the expertise to weld to the highest standards required for nuclear power plants, submarines, and other critical infrastructure. Of those 5,000 welders, approximately one-third are nearing retirement, further compounding the issue.”

“Australia’s energy transition is already struggling, and adding the monumental task of building nuclear power plants without a sufficient skilled workforce is impractical. We can barely meet our current commitments, let alone embark on new nuclear projects.” The yawning gap is approaching in the next decade when coal stations are closed down, too much of our gas is exported for no profit, solar, wind, and hydro can’t quite make up the shortfall, and operational nuclear is still more than a decade in the future. Hopefully, mature heads will make the right decisions for Australia’s energy requirements over the next few decades. There is a lot to lose if we don’t get it right.

Paul Hellard