Composites and Advanced materials

Resources and energy exports projected to earn more than $2Tn for Australia over the next six years The global deployment of solar power technology will be critical to the success of the global energy transition. As you’d have heard ad nauseum, digging resources out of the ground just won’t be part of the global energy future. When I say resources, I don’t mean coal, gas and oil (any more). By 2050, solar and other renewables will have to be the leading source of energy generation globally. This important energy transition is accelerating at scale and at pace, but geopolitical tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the fragility of Australia’s current supply chains and the risks associated with highly concentrated energy supply chains. In the March 2023 edition of Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ), there is an extended five-year outlook highlighting the medium term prospects of the resources industry. This includes industries producing the raw steel, copper, nickel, aluminium and other metals from which we manufacture everything. Short-term effects on these prospects include flooding of local mines and transport routes, and the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a subsequent spike in energy prices, which are expected to boost resources and energy exports to a record $464bn in 2022–23. Australia has world leading solar resources and a vast land mass that will allow us to facilitate deployment at scale. These advantages must be leveraged to meet Australia’s national targets of cutting emissions by at least 43% by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050, enable the export of energy to other countries to help achieve their net zero goals and establish a local green hydrogen industry of global significance. It will require a rapid and large scale escalation in solar power installations and there will be challenges ahead. The Australian Silicon Action Plan, generated by PwC and CSIRO, addresses the need for Australia to improve its standing in locally produced silicon for solar panel manufacturing from the abundant supplies of quartz. Local silicon of course should also be available for the local production of semiconductors and fibre-optics. However, the vast majority of the world’s silicon is produced in China. Renewable technologies will generate 90% of the world’s electricity by 2050, with solar PV the leading technology. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has estimated that annual global solar power generation capacity must increase from the current level of one terawatt (TW) to 5.2TW by 2030 and 14TW by 2050 to stay on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s emissions goals. Global demand for thermal coal demand has passed its peak, with most proposed thermal coal-fired power plants now cancelled around the world. Falling prices are expected to reduce thermal coal earnings from $65bn in 2022–23 to $19bn by 2027–28. Australia has a genuine opportunity to emerge as a global superpower in solar PV manufacture, energy generation and export. We have the highest per capita deployment of rooftop solar in the world: a great start. We also have world class solar resources and significant areas of land available for large scale solar arrays. However, one of the greatest risks to Australia’s solar ambitions and energy independence is our complete reliance on overseas supply chains for solar cells. Silicon, the critical mineral required for solar cell technology, has a highly geographically concentrated supply chain. This creates significant risks for the cost, reliability, and timeliness of new solar developments.